Two days later, Microsoft, holding $784 billion, will decide whether to invest in BTC

Original Article Title: "After 36 Hours, Microsoft Holding $78.4 Billion Will Decide Whether to Invest in BTC"

Original Article Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

On December 10th at 8:30 AM PST (December 11th at 0:30 AM Beijing Time), Microsoft will advance a significant shareholder proposal regarding Bitcoin—namely, to assess through a shareholder vote whether adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet is in the long-term interests of the shareholders. With BTC hovering around $100,000, this vote is widely regarded by the market as another key event this week that will impact the cryptocurrency market, in addition to the CPI and the situation in South Korea.

Background of the Proposal

The shareholder proposal was initially submitted by the American conservative think tank, the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR).

At that time, NCPPR's rationale was that during a period of ongoing inflation, a company's success depends not only on its operational performance but also on its profit preservation. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the average inflation rate in the United States over the past four years has been 5% (NCPPR believes the actual inflation rate may be higher). Therefore, in addition to increasing profits, companies have a fiduciary responsibility to protect profits from devaluation. However, as Microsoft has most of its assets invested in US government securities and corporate bonds, it has not been able to effectively protect its assets from devaluation.

NCPPR emphasized in the proposal that although Bitcoin has a certain level of volatility, "Bitcoin is still an excellent, even the best, hedge against inflation," therefore recommending that Microsoft consider allocating at least 1% of its assets to Bitcoin.

According to documents now filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the proposal is expected to be subject to shareholder voting on December 10th, along with several other proposals.

Will the Vote Pass?

While the cryptocurrency community is highly anticipating this vote, the approval of the proposal by Microsoft's shareholders still remains uncertain, considering the current situation.

In the documents submitted to the SEC, the Microsoft board of directors clearly expressed opposition to the proposal, citing that the Microsoft management had previously evaluated this topic but believed that corporate funds require stable and predictable investments to ensure liquidity and operational capital.

While the upper echelon has already made its stance clear, key organizations/personalities supporting this proposal are actively advocating for it, attempting to drive the proposal's implementation.

On one hand, BlackRock, holding a 7% stake in Microsoft, is expected to directly participate in the vote with a high likelihood of casting a supporting vote; MicroStrategy's co-founder Michael Saylor has also presented a 44-page PPT to Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella and board, emphasizing the changing Bitcoin regulatory landscape in hopes of influencing Microsoft's top management.

On the other hand, atop the Reddit forums known for their radical inclinations, there is a significant number of proposal supporters actively urging Microsoft's mid and small-scale shareholders to cast affirmative votes.

However, despite these efforts, the market outlook for the proposal's approval remains bleak. Real-time prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a mere 13% probability of the proposal's success.

If Approved, How Significant Would the Potential Buy-side Pressure Be?

Although the voting outcome remains uncertain, we can still glean an initial insight into how much buying power Microsoft could wield to purchase BTC postulated if the proposal goes through by examining Microsoft's reserves.

According to Macrotrends data, as of September 30, 2024, Microsoft's cash reserves amount to $78.428 billion.

This implies that if the proposal is successfully approved and the funds are allocated as suggested by NCPPR, at least 1% of the funds, this would translate to a buy-side pressure of at least $7.8 billion.

NCPPR Continues Its Efforts, Is Amazon Next After Microsoft?

This morning, NCPPR once again submitted a similar shareholder proposal to another tech behemoth, Amazon, proposing Amazon evaluate incorporating Bitcoin into the company's asset reserves. This time, NCPPR suggests Amazon allocate at least 5% of its total assets.

CZ also commented on this development through his personal X account, inquiring when Amazon would start accepting Bitcoin payments.

While the SEC has not yet outlined the progression of this proposal, Jubilee Royalty's founder and CEO Tim Kotzman has stated that the related announcement is expected to be made in April 2025 and may be deliberated at the 2025 annual shareholders' meeting.

From the already involved MicroStrategy and Tesla, to the potentially involved Microsoft and Amazon, the pace of Bitcoin's expansion into the mainstream world seems to be accelerating. Although the upcoming Microsoft event is unlikely to immediately endorse this vote, from a trend perspective, it may just be a matter of time.

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