Three Weeks of the US-Iran War: Who's Making Money, Who's Paying the Bill?
On February 28, the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran. Iran then blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 20 million barrels of oil that pass through it daily. Three weeks later, IEA Director Fatih Birol gave a figure on March 23 at the National Press Club of Australia: the global daily oil supply loss caused by this war is 11 million barrels.
This figure surpasses the combined losses of the 1973 oil embargo and the 1979 Iran Revolution crises.
Energy infrastructure in more than 40 locations across 9 countries in the Middle East suffered varying degrees of damage. IEA data for the same period shows that global natural gas supply loss has reached 140 billion cubic meters, nearly double the loss of European natural gas (75 billion cubic meters) during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In three weeks, the quantifiable impact of this conflict on the energy market has already exceeded that of the entire 1970s.

But supply loss is only half the story. The other half is that this crisis has clear beneficiaries.
Putin's Unexpected Harvest
Before the Iran war, Urals crude oil was trading at less than $60 a barrel. This price had been locked for nearly three years, a direct result of Western sanctions. After the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the West imposed a price ceiling on Russian oil, and Urals crude maintained a discount of $30 to $40 compared to the international benchmark Brent for a long period. This discount was the most visible signal of the sanctions in effect.
The Iran war changed everything. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a huge gap appeared in the global oil market, and buyers were forced to seek alternative supply. According to data from the Center for Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the total revenue from Russian fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of March reached 7.7 billion euros, averaging 513 million euros per day, an 8.7% increase from February's 472 million euros. Of this, daily revenue from oil exports was 372 million euros, earning an additional 672 million euros (about 777 million USD) in the two weeks.
In three weeks, Urals crude oil rose from less than $60 to about $90, an increase of nearly 80%. According to Al Jazeera, energy analyst George Voloshin pointed out that during the same period, Brent also rose from about $65 to over $110, but the key is not the absolute price, but the price difference between the two. The discount between Urals and Brent significantly narrowed from around $40 pre-war. Moscow Times reported on March 16 that Urals crude delivered to India even saw a premium over Brent, something that had never happened since the sanctions took effect.

In other words, the three-year economic wall built by the West through sanctions was partially torn down by the three-week Iran War.
The Trump administration announced a 30-day sanction waiver on March 12, allowing countries to purchase Russian crude oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this action would release approximately 140 million barrels of supply. However, analysts widely believe that the restriction on waivers that do not provide "significant financial benefits" is almost unenforceable. Meanwhile, the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, the largest in history. This waiver is set to expire on April 11, ushering in a new round of market uncertainty.
India is the most direct actor in this scenario. CREA data shows that in the first two weeks of March, India's total purchases of Russian fossil fuels reached 1.3 billion euros, averaging 89 million euros per day, a 48% increase from February's daily average of 60 million euros. Al Jazeera reported that at least seven tankers originally headed for China changed course en route to India, with one vessel named Aqua Titan arriving at an Indian port on March 21. While the world is anxious about oil prices, the oil trade between Moscow and New Delhi is accelerating.
Who is footing the bill?
The losses on the supply side and the gains on the revenue side will ultimately be passed on to the consumer side. American consumers are the most direct bearers of this burden.
AAA data shows that the national average price of gasoline in the United States has risen from $2.98 before the war to $3.96 on March 23, a 33% increase. California has reached an average of $5.56, with even Kansas at a minimum of $3.23. The average diesel price is $5.07, the highest since 2022.
A Fortune report noted that this round of oil price hikes has coincidentally offset the tax refunds that American households have just received.
The aviation industry is one of the first sectors to feel the impact. Platts assessment data shows that U.S. jet fuel prices have risen over 60% in three weeks, doubling in some regions. United Airlines became the first major U.S. carrier to officially announce capacity cuts. CEO Scott Kirby stated in an internal memo that the company is preparing for oil prices to reach $175 per barrel, meaning annual fuel costs will increase by about $11 billion, more than double the profit of the company's "best year ever." United will cut 5% of its flights in the second and third quarters.
The impact is spreading globally. According to CNBC's March 21 report, Delta Air Lines has also warned of possible capacity cuts. Euronews reports that Qantas, SAS, and Thai Airways have raised prices, while Air New Zealand has canceled over 1,000 flights.

Even the gig economy is being affected. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer's March 23 report, DoorDash has started offering drivers weekly $5 to $15 fuel subsidies and a 10% fuel cashback to deal with a decrease in order acceptance due to rising fuel prices. When a food delivery platform has to foot the bill for a Middle East conflict, the length of the impact transmission chain needs no further explanation.
Three weeks into the Iran war, the world is losing 11 million barrels of oil per day, with Russia earning nearly $800 million extra in 15 days, U.S. consumers seeing a one-third hike in gasoline costs. After the April 11 sanction waivers expire, this transmission chain will further extend.
You may also like

Abraxas Capital Mints $2.89 Billion USDT: Liquidity Boost or Just More Stablecoin Arbitrage?
Abraxas Capital just received $2.89 billion in freshly minted USDT from Tether. Is this a bullish liquidity injection for crypto markets, or is it business as usual for a stablecoin arbitrage giant? We analyze the data and the likely impact on Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi.

A VC from the Crypto world said AI is too crazy, and they are very conservative

The Evolutionary History of Contract Algorithms: A Decade of Perpetual Contracts, the Curtain Has Yet to Fall

Kicked out by PayPal, Musk aims to make a comeback in the cryptocurrency market

Solana ETF News: What Is a Solana ETF and Why Is Goldman Sachs Betting $108 Million on SOL?
Solana ETF news today shows Goldman Sachs disclosed a $108M position while total SOL ETF inflows reached $1.45B. Analysts now expect up to $6B in institutional demand as Solana trades 71% below its all-time high.

Bitcoin ETF News Today: $2.1B Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand for BTC
Bitcoin ETFs news recorded $2.1B inflows over 8 consecutive days, marking one of the strongest recent accumulation streaks. Here’s what the latest Bitcoin ETF news means for BTC price and whether the $80K breakout level is next.

Michael Saylor: Winter is Over – Is He Right? 5 Key Data Points (2026)
Michael Saylor tweeted yesterday “Winter‘s Over.” It is short. It is bold. And it has the crypto world talking.
But is he right? Or is this just another CEO pumping his bags?
Let us look at the data. Let us be neutral. Let us see if the ice has really melted.

WEEX Bubbles App Now Live Visualizes the Crypto Market at a Glance
WEEX Bubbles is a standalone app designed to help users quickly understand complex crypto market movements through an intuitive bubble visualization.

Polygon co-founder Sandeep: Writing after the chain bridge chain explosion

Major Upgrade on Web: 10+ Advanced Chart Styles for Deeper Market Insights
To deliver more powerful and professional analysis tools, WEEX has rolled out a major upgrade to its web trading charts—now supporting up to 14 advanced chart styles.

Morning Report | Aethir secures a $260 million enterprise contract with Axe Compute; New Fire Technology acquires Avenir Group's trading team; Polymarket's trading volume surpassed by Kalshi

Why a Million-Follower Crypto KOL Chooses WEEX VIP?
Discover why top crypto KOL Carl Moon partnered with WEEX. Explore the WEEX VIP ecosystem, 1,000 BTC protection fund, and exclusive rewards for serious traders.

CoinEx Founder: The Crypto Endgame in My Eyes

Spark Coin (SPK): Explodes 73% as Aave Bleeds $15B, A Good Investment Now?
Spark coin (SPK) surged 73% as $15 billion fled Aave after the KelpDAO hack. This article explains what Spark is, why it’s pumping, and whether it is a good investment right now.

As Aave's building collapses, Spark's high-rise is rising

RootData: Q1 2026 Cryptocurrency Exchange Transparency Research Report

What Is Memecoin Trading? A Beginner's Guide to How It Works, the Risks, and 2026's Hottest Tokens
Memecoins surged 30%+ at the start of 2026 while Bitcoin was flat. RAVE spiked 4,500% then crashed 90% in days. MAGA jumped 350% overnight. This guide explains exactly how memecoin trading works — and how to not blow up your account doing it.

Trump Extends Ceasefire: Bitcoin Hits $79K — What Crypto Traders Need to Know Right Now
Bitcoin surged past $79,000 after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. We break down exactly what happened, how every major crypto reacted, and what traders should watch next — including the one level that could unlock an $85,000 BTC rally.
Abraxas Capital Mints $2.89 Billion USDT: Liquidity Boost or Just More Stablecoin Arbitrage?
Abraxas Capital just received $2.89 billion in freshly minted USDT from Tether. Is this a bullish liquidity injection for crypto markets, or is it business as usual for a stablecoin arbitrage giant? We analyze the data and the likely impact on Bitcoin, altcoins, and DeFi.
A VC from the Crypto world said AI is too crazy, and they are very conservative
The Evolutionary History of Contract Algorithms: A Decade of Perpetual Contracts, the Curtain Has Yet to Fall
Kicked out by PayPal, Musk aims to make a comeback in the cryptocurrency market
Solana ETF News: What Is a Solana ETF and Why Is Goldman Sachs Betting $108 Million on SOL?
Solana ETF news today shows Goldman Sachs disclosed a $108M position while total SOL ETF inflows reached $1.45B. Analysts now expect up to $6B in institutional demand as Solana trades 71% below its all-time high.
Bitcoin ETF News Today: $2.1B Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand for BTC
Bitcoin ETFs news recorded $2.1B inflows over 8 consecutive days, marking one of the strongest recent accumulation streaks. Here’s what the latest Bitcoin ETF news means for BTC price and whether the $80K breakout level is next.







