Investment Bank Jefferies: The CLARITY Act faces a critical test in the Senate, which may exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market

According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and related legislative progress in the coming weeks may exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete the bill's consolidation, procedural voting, coordination with the House version, and submission for presidential signature, making the timeline very tight.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their layout in tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitate more cryptocurrency ETFs and IPOs of cryptocurrency infrastructure companies. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business advancement.

The report predicts that the progress of the bill will continue to affect the market performance of cryptocurrency concept stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), and some cryptocurrency assets.

Jefferies also noted that in the long term, compared to regulatory changes, the greater challenge faced by stablecoin issuer Circle still comes from competition with banks, fintech, and payment companies.