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From ETF Fund Flow Predicting Future Market Trends, Is ETH Finally Going to Take the Baton from BTC?
Original Article Title: "Will ETF Fund Flows Forecast the Future Market? Is ETH Finally Taking Over from BTC?"
Original Article Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
On December 29, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader in the cryptocurrency community, released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025, predicting that ETH will be the best-performing mainstream token of the next quarter.
Eugene first mentioned three reasons for his bullish view on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially WLF's significant buy-in to the Ethereum ecosystem); and the status of the Base ecosystem development. He then emphasized once again that since Trump's election, there has been a 180-degree shift in the inflow of Ethereum spot ETF funds.
ETF Fund Trends: Is Ethereum More Favorable?
Eugene did not exaggerate. SoSoValue data shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, there has been a significant increase in inflows into the Ethereum spot ETF, with the growth trend even surpassing that of the Bitcoin spot ETF during the same period.
Entering late December, this trend has become even more pronounced.
SoSoValue data shows that last week (December 23 to December 27 Eastern Time), Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $349 million for the week, while the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $388 million — this significant difference in fund flows may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.
As of the publication, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for Monday of this week has not been fully disclosed yet, but according to LookIntoChain's on-chain monitoring, yesterday, ten US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3000 BTC ($275.59 million); nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.
Trump Concept Full House
In addition to the ETF flow data, another reason supporting the outlook for ETH is the ongoing accumulation of the Trump family project WLFI.
Over the past period, WLFI has successively acquired several Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, but the project's largest holding is still ETH.
Although this is somewhat related to WIFI itself being deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "even the president has gotten on board, what are you still hesitating for" still has a strong FOMO effect.
Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?
Coinglass data shows that in the history of U.S. elections and post Bitcoin halving cycles, during the first quarter of the new year, ETH has performed the best, especially in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, with ETH rising by 518% and 161% respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns in these two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).
If history repeats itself, ETH may experience a significant surge in Q1 of next year.
Potential Beta Choices
If ETH is truly able to surge, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher risk/reward Beta choices, such as:
· Trump Concept Coin Portfolio: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;
· Grayscale Top 20 Selection: LINK, UNI, AAVE, ENA, OP, LDO;
· ETF Collateral Expectation Potential Upside: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;
· Top Ethereum Ecosystem AI Concepts: VIRTUAL, GAME, AIXBT;
Odaily Note: The above tokens are only examples within specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.
Contrarian Viewpoint
Although many well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have been openly bullish on ETH, there are also voices expressing a pessimistic view on ETH's future performance.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen has outlined a more pessimistic scenario, expecting ETH to continue to underperform and not reach a new all-time high in a "hawkish" macro environment by 2025: "We anticipate a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policies may face a test of weakening liquidity tailwinds."
During this period of high market volatility, the predictions offered by various parties are based solely on the conditions and indicators they focus on, leading to "one-sided conclusions." No one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before making any decisions.
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· Input position size and leverage
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Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.
This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."
The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.
Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.
Its core capabilities include:
· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations
· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets
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· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication
Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.
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Mixin has launched USTD-margined perpetual contracts, bringing derivative trading into the chat scene.
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Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.
Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.
The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:
· Choose the trading asset
· Select long or short
· Input position size and leverage
· Confirm order details
· Confirm and open the position
The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.
Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:
· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members
· End-to-end encrypted voice communication
· One-click position sharing
· One-click trade copying
On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.
By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.
Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:
· Users can join with an invite code
· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards
· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings
This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.
Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:
· Separation of transaction account and asset storage
· User full control over assets
· Platform does not custody user funds
· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure
The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.
Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.
The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.
Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.
This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."
The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.
Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.
Its core capabilities include:
· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations
· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets
· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries
· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication
Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.
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