Disaster to Gambling Site? Polymarket Stirs Controversy with "California Wildfire Prediction Market"

By: blockbeats|2025/01/10 15:00:02

Original Article Title: Polymarket faces backlash over 'sick' California wildfire markets
Original Author: Protos Staff
Original Translation: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: The article criticized the prediction market platform Polymarket for the controversy surrounding users speculating on the California wildfires. Against the backdrop of wildfires that have already caused multiple deaths and forced tens of thousands to evacuate, users apathetically bet on the development of the disaster, with some prediction pools reaching up to $100,000. This behavior of "gambling" on a public disaster has sparked intense moral questioning.

The following is the original content (slightly rephrased for better understanding):

Wildfire 'Gambling' Sparks Outrage

Polymarket is currently facing widespread criticism for its "disgusting" prediction markets, where the platform is allowing bets on the ongoing California wildfires.

Disaster to Gambling Site? Polymarket Stirs Controversy with

The wildfires broke out in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday and quickly spread across various parts of Los Angeles. As of now, five deadly wildfires have led to over 137,000 evacuations and claimed the lives of 5 individuals.

Many Polymarket users have taken advantage of this situation to create various prediction markets related to the spread of the fire, when the fire will be brought under control, and potential resignations of political figures, among others. The trading volume for some markets has approached $100,000.

However, many netizens are not buying into these markets and Polymarket's promotion. One user on X platform bluntly stated, "Betting on a wildfire is truly sick." Another user expressed that betting on such a tragedy is "unacceptably shameless no matter what."

Some users are even concerned that wildfire prediction markets may encourage arsonists to increase their bet's success rate. One user pointed out that the odds of these markets are entirely based on gamblers' emotions and responded to Polymarket's post saying, "No, there is no '48% chance of spreading,' it's just that 48% of people are betting on it happening."

For Polymarket, such strong opposition is nothing new. Last year, in the Titan Submersible Disaster market, the platform faced similar criticism for allowing users to bet on whether the submersible would explode, leading to the death of 5 passengers.

To mitigate its liability across at least 10 different Wildfire markets, Polymarket added a brief disclaimer stating that it leverages "crowdsourced wisdom" to create "accurate and objective event predictions." The disclaimer states: "The devastating Pacific Palisades wildfire is one such event where Polymarket can provide valuable real-time answers to those directly affected in a way that traditional media cannot."

It is worth noting that if you are truly affected by a wildfire, relying on news organizations actively reporting on the event is more reliable than a crypto prediction platform.

Crypto Companies Near the Wildfires

In addition to threatening millions of California residents, the rapidly spreading wildfires also pose a significant threat to several crypto companies and prominent community members. Many have already lost homes and belongings, including valuable hardware wallets.

Employees of the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office are located just south of the Palisades and Getty fires. Several employees of Swan Bitcoin, which previously hosted the Pacific Bitcoin conference in Santa Monica, are also in the southern fire-affected region.

Blockchain service provider BlockDaemon is headquartered in Los Angeles, along with another crypto game developer, SuperVerse. Blockchain-based identity verification and tokenization company SpringLabs is headquartered in the nearby Marina del Rey.

Some companies have been relatively fortunate. As of now, the Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles has not been impacted by the fires. Crypto entertainment venues DaBank and Jungla in Hawthorne and North Hollywood have also temporarily been spared from the wildfires.

「Original Article Link」

The privacy-focused crypto wallet Mixin announced today the launch of its U-based perpetual contract (a derivative priced in USDT). Unlike traditional exchanges, Mixin has taken a new approach by "liberating" derivative trading from isolated matching engines and embedding it into the instant messaging environment.

Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.

Simplified Trading Experience: No KYC Required, Opening a Position in Five Steps

Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.

The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:

· Choose the trading asset

· Select long or short

· Input position size and leverage

· Confirm order details

· Confirm and open the position

The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.

Social-Native Trading: Strategy and Execution Completed in the Same Context

Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:

· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members

· End-to-end encrypted voice communication

· One-click position sharing

· One-click trade copying

On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.

By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.

Referral Mechanism: Non-institutional users can receive up to 60% fee split

Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:

· Users can join with an invite code

· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards

· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings

This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.

Self-Custody Architecture and Built-in Privacy Mechanism

Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:

· Separation of transaction account and asset storage

· User full control over assets

· Platform does not custody user funds

· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure

The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.

A New Path for On-Chain Derivatives

Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.

The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.

Regulatory Background

Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.

This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."

The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.

About Mixin

Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.

Its core capabilities include:

· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations

· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets

· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries

· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication

Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.

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