On August 9, Cathie Wood stated that the latest employment report appears concerning, but the actual situation is not as bad as it seems. What deserves attention is the economic changes behind the employment data. The U.S. fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is 5.6%, similar to the Reaganomics of the early 1980s; if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate, this ratio could approach 5% by the end of the year. A greater risk in the future may be deflation, especially for businesses that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools. Regarding oil, after the UAE exited OPEC in May, a supply surplus has formed, with production reaching historical highs. Wood believes that oil prices could significantly decline, becoming a driving factor for global deflation. Capital expenditures have surpassed the range of the past 30 years, and concerns about an AI bubble are exaggerated, as we are still in the early stages of a technological revolution. In terms of crypto assets, Wood pointed out that Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and she believes that Bitcoin and stablecoins may become the main beneficiaries of business transformation for intelligent agents.
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